All matches

Norwich City FC — Portsmouth FC, Championship

England, Championship

Norwich City FC
1.7LLWWL
—
Portsmouth FC
1.4DDWLL
Outcome probability
522622
Norwich City FC52%Draw26%Portsmouth FC22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Norwich City FC52%1.92—
XDraw26%3.89—
2Portsmouth FC22%4.48—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68

No40%

ours 2.48

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNorwich City FCPortsmouth FCCombined
Goals scored1.830.672.50
Conceded1.670.672.34
Corners9.513.311.4
Cards2.51.03.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Norwich City FCPortsmouth FC
    17Table position19
    53.30%Possession51.30%
    2.8Days of rest2.8
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Norwich City FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 52%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Norwich City FC

  • homeBolton Wanderers FC3:4
  • awayMiddlesbrough FC3:4
  • homeBirmingham City FC2:1
  • awaySheffield United FC3:1
  • awayStoke City FC0:1

Portsmouth FC

  • homeBlackburn Rovers FC2:2
  • awayCharlton Athletic FC0:0
  • homeCardiff City FC2:0
  • homeDerby County FC0:2
  • awayBristol City FC1:2

Head to head

  • 04/03/26Championship1:1
  • 08/16/25Championship2:1
  • 04/18/25Championship3:5
  • 12/10/24Championship0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
15Bolton Wanderers FC831411:1510
16Blackburn Rovers FC823312:129
17Norwich City FC830516:179
18Sheffield United FC82339:119
19Portsmouth FC72239:108
20Watford FC82247:108
21Cardiff City FC814310:127

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.