Northern Ireland — Georgia, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations League06:45 PM

Northern Ireland

1.8DWLWL

—

Georgia

1.9DLLLL

Outcome probability

512821

Northern Ireland51%Draw28%Georgia21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Northern Ireland51%1.96—

XDraw28%3.58—

2Georgia21%4.72—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes34%

ours 2.96

No66%

ours 1.51

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNorthern IrelandGeorgiaCombined

Goals scored0.330.330.66

Conceded0.501.832.33

Corners9.38.28.7

Cards2.51.23.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Northern IrelandGeorgia
10Table position38
38.30%Possession56.40%
3Days of rest3
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Northern Ireland: a home win is rated at 51%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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