All matches

Nõmme Kalju FC — Tallinna FC Flora, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Nõmme Kalju FC
3.0WWLLL
—
Tallinna FC Flora
3.0WWDWW
Outcome probability
422236
Nõmme Kalju FC42%Draw22%Tallinna FC Flora36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Nõmme Kalju FC42%2.38—
XDraw22%4.56—
2Tallinna FC Flora36%2.77—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes39%

ours 2.56

No61%

ours 1.64

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNõmme Kalju FCTallinna FC FloraCombined
Goals scored1.001.332.33
Conceded0.501.001.50
Corners11.08.79.8
Cards2.31.03.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Nõmme Kalju FCTallinna FC Flora
    4Table position2
    2Matches in 14 days3
    47.30%Possession58.00%
    8Days of rest6.9
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Nõmme Kalju FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Nõmme Kalju FC

  • awayJK Tammeka Tartu3:1
  • homeJK Narva Trans2:0
  • homeFC Nõmme United1:2
  • awayTallinna FC Flora1:2
  • homeTallinna FC Levadia2:3

Tallinna FC Flora

  • homePärnu JK Vaprus3:2
  • awayFC Nõmme United3:2
  • awayJK Narva Trans2:2
  • homeNõmme Kalju FC2:1
  • homeJK Tammeka Tartu3:2

Head to head

  • 09/05/26Meistriliiga1:2
  • 05/10/26Meistriliiga0:1
  • 03/15/26Meistriliiga1:0
  • 09/28/25Meistriliiga3:1
  • 07/06/25Meistriliiga0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Tallinna FC Levadia29226181:2172
2Tallinna FC Flora291811059:3955
3Paide Linnameeskond29156848:3651
4Nõmme Kalju FC29155952:2750
5JK Tammeka Tartu291421337:4744
6Harju Jalgpallikool291221541:4638

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.