All matches

Nomme Kalju — Harju Jalgpallikool, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Nomme Kalju
3.0WWLLL
—
Harju Jalgpallikool
1.4DWWLW
Outcome probability
602317
Nomme Kalju60%Draw23%Harju Jalgpallikool17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Nomme Kalju60%1.66—
XDraw23%4.37—
2Harju Jalgpallikool17%5.91—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.85

No65%

ours 1.54

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNomme KaljuHarju JalgpallikoolCombined
Goals scored1.501.332.83
Conceded1.501.002.50
Corners11.510.511.0
Cards2.32.75.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Nomme KaljuHarju Jalgpallikool
    4Table position6
    47.70%Possession53.00%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Nõmme Kalju FC: a home win is rated at 60%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Nomme Kalju

  • awayTammeka Tartu3:1
  • homeNarva Trans2:0
  • homeNomme United1:2
  • awayFlora1:2
  • homeLevadia2:3

Harju Jalgpallikool

  • homeKuressaare0:0
  • awayPaide2:1
  • awayVaprus Parnu3:2
  • homeTammeka Tartu0:2
  • awayNomme United2:1

Head to head

  • 08/22/26Meistriliiga0:1
  • 05/20/26Meistriliiga1:0
  • 04/08/26Meistriliiga2:0
  • 10/19/25Meistriliiga3:1
  • 09/24/25Meistriliiga3:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Flora291811059:3955
3Paide29156848:3651
4Nomme Kalju29155952:2750
5Tammeka Tartu291421337:4744
6Harju Jalgpallikool291221541:4638
7Vaprus Parnu29941638:5831
8Kuressaare29851631:4929

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.