NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica — HNK Rijeka, Prva HNL

Croatia, Prva HNLOctober 11 at 04:00 PM

NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica

1.5DLWLW

—

HNK Rijeka

2.7WDWDL

Outcome probability

212850

NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica21%Draw28%HNK Rijeka50%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1NK Slaven Belupo Koprivnica21%4.67—

XDraw28%3.52—

2HNK Rijeka50%1.99—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.19

No54%

ours 1.84

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNK Slaven Belupo KoprivnicaHNK RijekaCombined

Goals scored1.002.003.00

Conceded1.671.333.00

Corners9.09.59.3

Cards2.22.04.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
NK Slaven Belupo KoprivnicaHNK Rijeka
8Table position5
42.20%Possession54.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
HNK Rijeka travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 50%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans