NK Rudeš — HNK Rijeka, Prva HNL

Croatia, Prva HNLOctober 16 at 04:00 PM

NK Rudeš

1.6DLLLW

—

HNK Rijeka

2.7WDWDL

Outcome probability

222850

NK Rudeš22%Draw28%HNK Rijeka50%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1NK Rudeš22%4.49—

XDraw28%3.54—

2HNK Rijeka50%2.02—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.01

No50%

ours 1.99

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNK RudešHNK RijekaCombined

Goals scored1.331.502.83

Conceded2.001.003.00

Corners10.09.49.7

Cards2.42.44.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
NK RudešHNK Rijeka
10Table position5
7Days of rest5
43.60%Possession53.60%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, HNK Rijeka still look stronger — an away win is rated at 50%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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