Radomlje — Koper, PrvaLiga

Slovenia, PrvaLigaOctober 10 at 01:00 PM

Radomlje

1.2LLLDL

—

Koper

3.0WLWWW

Outcome probability

172360

Radomlje17%Draw23%Koper60%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Radomlje17%23%5.984.32-6.4

XDraw23%23%4.314.29-0.1

2Koper60%59%1.661.71+1.6

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.77book 1.60

No43%

ours 2.30book 2.18

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRadomljeKoperCombined

Goals scored0.501.001.50

Conceded1.830.502.33

Corners9.69.89.7

Cards3.02.85.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
RadomljeKoper
10Table position2
48.60%Possession54.20%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, FC Koper still look stronger — an away win is rated at 60%. Bookmakers price this at 1.71.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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