NK Osijek — NK Rudeš, Prva HNL

Croatia, Prva HNLOctober 24 at 12:00 AM

NK Osijek

1.6DWLWL

—

NK Rudeš

1.6DLLLW

Outcome probability

562518

NK Osijek56%Draw25%NK Rudeš18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1NK Osijek56%1.78—

XDraw25%3.94—

2NK Rudeš18%5.43—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.74

No43%

ours 2.35

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNK OsijekNK RudešCombined

Goals scored1.330.672.00

Conceded1.001.832.83

Corners8.510.59.5

Cards2.32.54.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
NK OsijekNK Rudeš
3Table position10
2Matches in 14 days1
53.00%Possession39.80%
6.3Days of rest7.3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
NK Osijek look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 56%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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