All matches

Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie — Fortuna Sittard, Eredivisie

Netherlands, Eredivisie

Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie
2.2DLLDL
—
Fortuna Sittard
1.7WLWWL
Outcome probability
602317
Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie60%Draw23%Fortuna Sittard17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie60%1.66—
XDraw23%4.31—
2Fortuna Sittard17%6.03—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.71

No42%

ours 2.41

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNijmegen Eendracht CombinatieFortuna SittardCombined
Goals scored0.501.331.83
Conceded1.831.833.66
Corners7.09.88.4
Cards1.52.03.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Nijmegen Eendracht CombinatieFortuna Sittard
    3Days of rest8
    2Matches in 14 days1
    11Table position6
    57.50%Possession38.00%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 60%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie

  • homeGo Ahead Eagles1:1
  • awayJuventus FC0:5
  • awaySC Cambuur Leeuwarden0:3
  • homeSBV Excelsior2:2
  • homeFeyenoord Rotterdam1:3

Fortuna Sittard

  • awayWillem II1:0
  • homeAFC Ajax1:5
  • awayHFC ADO Den Haag3:2
  • awayFC Groningen3:2
  • homeAlkmaar Zaanstreek0:2

Head to head

  • 02/28/26Eredivisie2:3
  • 08/31/25Eredivisie2:3
  • 01/19/25Eredivisie4:1
  • 08/31/24Eredivisie3:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4FC Twente751115:716
5AFC Ajax742121:914
6Fortuna Sittard741213:1413
7SBV Excelsior732215:911
8FC Groningen732215:1311
9Go Ahead Eagles724116:1410
10SC Heerenveen723211:99
11Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie722312:138
12Sparta Rotterdam712410:175
13SC Telstar71245:125

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.