All matches

Newell's Old Boys — Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero, Primera División

Argentina, Primera División

Newell's Old Boys
1.7WDDDW
—
Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero
1.5DLLDL
Outcome probability
472924
Newell's Old Boys47%Draw29%Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Newell's Old Boys47%2.14—
XDraw29%3.46—
2Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero24%4.11—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.15

No53%

ours 1.87

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNewell's Old BoysCentral Córdoba de Santiago del EsteroCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded0.331.001.33
Corners8.810.89.8
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Newell's Old BoysCentral Córdoba de Santiago del Estero
    1Matches in 14 days2
    23Table position27
    46.00%Possession46.80%
    7Days of rest7
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Newell's Old Boys look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 47%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Newell's Old Boys

  • awayPlatense1:0
  • homeClub Atlético Vélez Sarsfield1:1
  • awayCA Rosario Central1:1
  • awayEstudiantes de La Plata0:0
  • homeCA Banfield2:1

Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero

  • homeCSD Defensa y Justicia2:2
  • awayCA Boca Juniors1:3
  • homeCA Independiente0:1
  • awayCA Talleres de Córdoba0:0
  • awayCA Tigre1:2

Head to head

  • 04/05/26Primera División3:1
  • 08/09/25Primera División1:1
  • 02/07/25Primera División0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
21Barracas Central2588919:2132
22Racing Club de Avellaneda28881230:3332
23Newell's Old Boys26710926:3531
24CA Tucuman26691122:2627
25CA Banfield25751327:3426
26Platense265101119:3025
27Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero26661418:3424
28Riestra253121013:1921
29CA Aldosivi262101418:3516

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.