Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.73
No42%
ours 2.37
All matches
—
Newcastle United FC — Aston Villa FC, Premier League
England, Premier League
Newcastle United FC
2.5WLDWDAston Villa FC
3.3WLWDLOutcome probability
392933
Newcastle United FC39%Draw29%Aston Villa FC33%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Newcastle United FC2.60—
XDraw3.48—
2Aston Villa FC3.05—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNewcastle United FCAston Villa FCCombined
Goals scored1.501.172.67
Conceded1.501.002.50
Corners10.48.89.6
Cards2.41.84.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Newcastle United FCAston Villa FC1Matches in 14 days29Table position164.9Days of rest2.949.00%Possession50.00% - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Newcastle United FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 39%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 5.5
72%
Form and context
Newcastle United FC
- homeHull City AFC2:1
- awayLeeds United FC1:4
- homeAFC Bournemouth2:2
- awayTottenham Hotspur FC2:0
- homeLiverpool FC2:2
Aston Villa FC
- awayTottenham Hotspur FC3:2
- homeNottingham Forest FC1:2
- awayClub Brugge KV3:2
- awayHull City AFC0:0
- homeArsenal FC0:1
Head to head
- 01/25/26Premier League0:2
- 08/16/25Premier League0:0
- 04/19/25Premier League1:4
- 12/26/24Premier League3:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Everton FC52306:39
Everton FC52306:398
Hull City AFC52216:48
Hull City AFC52216:489Newcastle United FC52219:98
Newcastle United FC52219:9810
Chelsea FC521210:127
Chelsea FC521210:12711
Ipswich Town FC52037:116
Ipswich Town FC52037:11612
Manchester United FC51228:85
Manchester United FC51228:8513
Nottingham Forest FC51224:55
Nottingham Forest FC51224:5514
Sunderland AFC51136:104
Sunderland AFC51136:10415
Crystal Palace FC51136:114
Crystal Palace FC51136:11416Aston Villa FC51134:94
Aston Villa FC51134:9417
AFC Bournemouth50326:83
AFC Bournemouth50326:8318
Coventry City FC51041:103
Coventry City FC51041:103