New York Red Bulls — Toronto FC, MLS

USA, MLSOctober 17 at 11:30 PM

New York Red Bulls

1.7WWLDL

—

Toronto FC

1.3LLLWD

Outcome probability

462628

New York Red Bulls46%Draw26%Toronto FC28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1New York Red Bulls46%2.17—

XDraw26%3.88—

2Toronto FC28%3.56—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.17

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNew York Red BullsToronto FCCombined

Goals scored0.330.500.83

Conceded0.331.501.83

Corners11.710.511.1

Cards2.31.33.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
New York Red BullsToronto FC
19Table position27
45.00%Possession40.50%
3Days of rest3
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
New York Red Bulls look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 46%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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