Both teams to score
Yes43%
ours 2.33
No57%
ours 1.75
All matches
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Neftçi PFC Bakı — Turan-T IK, Premyer Liqası
Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası
Neftçi PFC Bakı
2.7WWWLWTuran-T IK
2.5WDWLDOutcome probability
502822
Neftçi PFC Bakı50%Draw28%Turan-T IK22%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Neftçi PFC Bakı1.98—
XDraw3.63—
2Turan-T IK4.54—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNeftçi PFC BakıTuran-T IKCombined
Goals scored1.670.832.50
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners10.07.88.9
Cards1.81.83.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Neftçi PFC BakıTuran-T IK1Table position456.30%Possession51.50%7Days of rest72Matches in 14 days2 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Neftçi PFC Bakı look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 50%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
72%
Form and context
Neftçi PFC Bakı
- awayFK Qabala3:0
- awayMil Muğan FK3:2
- homeFK Safa4:1
- awayZira IK0:1
- homeAraz FK5:0
Turan-T IK
- homeZira IK1:0
- awayAraz FK2:2
- homeFK Sumqayıt2:1
- awayFK Kapaz0:1
- homeFC İnter Bakı0:0
Head to head
- 03/09/26Premyer Liqası0:1
- 11/28/25Premyer Liqası0:0
- 08/29/25Premyer Liqası0:1
- 05/10/25Premyer Liqası2:1
- 03/10/25Premyer Liqası1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Neftçi PFC Bakı650118:515
Neftçi PFC Bakı650118:5152
Sabah FK550014:115
Sabah FK550014:1153
Qarabağ Ağdam FK54109:413
Qarabağ Ağdam FK54109:4134Turan-T IK63216:411
Turan-T IK63216:4115
Zira IK63127:810
Zira IK63127:8106
FC İnter Bakı62318:69
FC İnter Bakı62318:69