All matches

MVV — Heracles Almelo, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste Divisie

MVV
1.2WLLDW
—
Heracles Almelo
1.1WLWWW
Outcome probability
222157
MVV22%Draw21%Heracles Almelo57%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1MVV22%4.55—
XDraw21%4.85—
2Heracles Almelo57%1.74—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.07

No52%

ours 1.93

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMVVHeracles AlmeloCombined
Goals scored0.671.672.34
Conceded1.830.502.33
Corners8.89.59.1
Cards1.51.32.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    MVVHeracles Almelo
    3Table position1
    56.00%Possession55.30%
    8.9Days of rest8.9
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Heracles Almelo travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 57%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

MVV

  • homeHelmond Sport2:0
  • awayRKC Waalwijk1:6
  • homeAlmere City FC0:4
  • homeSV Roda JC1:1
  • awayAlkmaar Zaanstreek II2:1

Heracles Almelo

  • homeSBV Vitesse2:0
  • awayAlmere City FC0:1
  • homeAlkmaar Zaanstreek II3:2
  • homeBV De Graafschap5:0
  • awayFC Eindhoven3:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Heracles Almelo870126:1021
2Almere City FC851218:716
3MVV851212:1516
4VVV Venlo850321:1415
5SV Roda JC84319:515

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.