All matches

Montreal Impact — Atlanta United FC, MLS

USA, MLS

Montreal Impact
0.9WLLLL
—
Atlanta United FC
1.1DWDLD
Outcome probability
412732
Montreal Impact41%Draw27%Atlanta United FC32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Montreal Impact41%2.44—
XDraw27%3.75—
2Atlanta United FC32%3.09—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.96

No49%

ours 2.04

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMontreal ImpactAtlanta United FCCombined
Goals scored0.671.171.84
Conceded1.331.172.50
Corners8.69.89.2
Cards2.21.84.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Montreal ImpactAtlanta United FC
    4.3Days of rest4
    49.60%Possession51.40%
    29Table position28
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Montreal Impact: a home win is rated at 41%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Montreal Impact

  • homeFC Cincinnati3:1
  • homeColumbus Crew0:2
  • awayColorado Rapids0:1
  • homeCharlotte FC1:2
  • awayPhiladelphia Union0:2

Atlanta United FC

  • homeNew York City FC2:2
  • awayPortland Timbers1:0
  • awayDC United0:0
  • homeOrlando City SC2:3
  • awayClub Internacional de Fútbol Miami2:2

Head to head

  • 05/02/26MLS1:3
  • 08/09/25MLS1:1
  • 02/23/25MLS2:3
  • 10/22/24MLS2:2
  • 10/02/24MLS2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
26Minnesota United FC27781240:4929
27Toronto FC276111039:5129
28Atlanta United FC27761432:4527
29Montreal Impact27661534:5424
30Sporting Kansas City26631731:6321

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.