Montenegro — Armenia, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations League06:45 PM

Montenegro

1.5WWLWL

—

Armenia

1.3LWLLL

Outcome probability

6819

Montenegro68%Draw19%Armenia14%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Montenegro68%1.48—

XDraw19%5.40—

2Armenia14%7.29—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.22

No55%

ours 1.82

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMontenegroArmeniaCombined

Goals scored1.500.832.33

Conceded1.832.334.16

Corners8.48.28.3

Cards1.81.02.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
MontenegroArmenia
3Table position17
54.00%Possession46.80%
3.1Days of rest3.1
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Montenegro: a home win is rated at 68%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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