Moldova — Slovakia, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations LeagueOctober 6 at 06:45 PM

Moldova

1.7DLLLD

—

Slovakia

2.0WWLLW

Outcome probability

2563

Moldova12%Draw25%Slovakia63%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Moldova12%8.38—

XDraw25%4.00—

2Slovakia63%1.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes26%

ours 3.79

No74%

ours 1.36

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMoldovaSlovakiaCombined

Goals scored0.501.001.50

Conceded1.671.673.34

Corners10.49.09.7

Cards1.81.33.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
MoldovaSlovakia
41Table position6
38.20%Possession53.80%
4.2Days of rest4
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Slovakia travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 63%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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