MKS Cracovia Kraków — Zagłębie Lubin, Ekstraklasa

Poland, EkstraklasaOctober 10 at 12:45 PM

MKS Cracovia Kraków

1.8LLLLW

—

Zagłębie Lubin

1.8LWWDD

Outcome probability

402931

MKS Cracovia Kraków40%Draw29%Zagłębie Lubin31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1MKS Cracovia Kraków40%2.50—

XDraw29%3.50—

2Zagłębie Lubin31%3.19—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.18

No54%

ours 1.85

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMKS Cracovia KrakówZagłębie LubinCombined

Goals scored1.501.002.50

Conceded2.001.003.00

Corners11.29.210.2

Cards1.53.24.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
MKS Cracovia KrakówZagłębie Lubin
13Table position7
45.30%Possession43.00%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour MKS Cracovia Kraków: a home win is rated at 40%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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