MKS Cracovia Kraków — KP Legia Warszawa, Ekstraklasa

Poland, EkstraklasaOctober 17 at 06:15 PM

MKS Cracovia Kraków

1.8LLLLW

—

KP Legia Warszawa

2.8WDWDD

Outcome probability

312841

MKS Cracovia Kraków31%Draw28%KP Legia Warszawa41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1MKS Cracovia Kraków31%3.24—

XDraw28%3.56—

2KP Legia Warszawa41%2.44—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.99

No50%

ours 2.01

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMKS Cracovia KrakówKP Legia WarszawaCombined

Goals scored1.171.502.67

Conceded1.831.002.83

Corners11.09.210.1

Cards1.81.43.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
MKS Cracovia KrakówKP Legia Warszawa
13Table position2
7.2Days of rest6
46.00%Possession47.20%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, KP Legia Warszawa still look stronger — an away win is rated at 41%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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