Mjällby AIF — Hammarby IF, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 25 at 03:30 PM

Mjällby AIF

2.5LDLLL

—

Hammarby IF

2.9WWDLW

Outcome probability

232255

Mjällby AIF23%Draw22%Hammarby IF55%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Mjällby AIF23%4.33—

XDraw22%4.52—

2Hammarby IF55%1.83—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.01

No50%

ours 1.99

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMjällby AIFHammarby IFCombined

Goals scored0.001.171.17

Conceded0.500.831.33

Corners5.08.86.9

Cards4.01.55.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Mjällby AIFHammarby IF
12Table position2
3Matches in 14 days1
2.9Days of rest7
62.80%Possession57.50%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Hammarby IF travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 55%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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