All matches

Mjällby AIF — Degerfors, Allsvenskan

Sweden, Allsvenskan

Mjällby AIF
2.5LDLLL
—
Degerfors
1.3LWLLW
Outcome probability
582221
Mjällby AIF58%Draw22%Degerfors21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Mjällby AIF58%1.74—
XDraw22%4.58—
2Degerfors21%4.86—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.29

No56%

ours 1.77

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMjällby AIFDegerforsCombined
Goals scored0.330.831.16
Conceded2.330.833.16
Corners8.211.49.8
Cards2.21.84.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Mjällby AIFDegerfors
    12Table position13
    55.30%Possession52.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Mjällby AIF: a home win is rated at 58%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Mjällby AIF

  • homeGAIS0:3
  • awayBK Häcken1:1
  • homeIFK Göteborg1:4
  • homeDjurgårdens IF0:2
  • awayDjurgårdens IF0:4

Degerfors

  • homeHammarby IF0:1
  • homeHalmstads BK2:0
  • awayIF Elfsborg0:2
  • awayIF Brommapojkarna0:2
  • homeIFK Göteborg3:0

Head to head

  • 05/09/26Allsvenskan4:1
  • 09/13/25Allsvenskan1:0
  • 04/27/25Allsvenskan4:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10GAIS2186728:1830
11IF Brommapojkarna2276930:3627
12Mjällby AIF21561026:3721
13Degerfors21541219:3219
14Kalmar FF22541321:3619
15Örgryte IS22361325:4915

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.