All matches

Minnesota United FC — Sporting Kansas City, MLS

USA, MLS

Minnesota United FC
1.9LLLLL
—
Sporting Kansas City
0.5WLWLL
Outcome probability
592119
Minnesota United FC59%Draw21%Sporting Kansas City19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Minnesota United FC59%1.69—
XDraw21%4.66—
2Sporting Kansas City19%5.14—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes65%

ours 1.54

No35%

ours 2.85

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMinnesota United FCSporting Kansas CityCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded1.000.001.00
Corners13.011.012.0
Cards1.54.05.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Minnesota United FCSporting Kansas City
    26Table position30
    44.50%Possession49.00%
    4Days of rest4
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Minnesota United FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 59%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Goal in both halves: Yes

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Minnesota United FC

  • awaySeattle Sounders FC1:3
  • homeLA Galaxy2:3
  • awaySt. Louis City SC2:4
  • homeFC Dallas1:2
  • awayPortland Timbers4:5

Sporting Kansas City

  • awayHouston Dynamo2:0
  • homePhiladelphia Union3:4
  • homeLos Angeles FC3:1
  • awayFC Dallas3:4
  • homeVancouver Whitecaps FC0:3

Head to head

  • 07/23/26MLS1:2
  • 10/05/25MLS3:0
  • 03/16/25MLS3:3
  • 09/22/24MLS2:0
  • 06/02/24MLS3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
24DC United26612834:4230
25Columbus Crew27851439:4329
26Minnesota United FC27781240:4929
27Toronto FC276111039:5129
28Atlanta United FC27761432:4527
29Montreal Impact27661534:5424
30Sporting Kansas City26631731:6321

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.