Mil Muğan FK — Qarabağ Ağdam FK, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer LiqasıOctober 11 at 12:00 PM

Mil Muğan FK

1.5LLLWL

—

Qarabağ Ağdam FK

3.4WDWWL

Outcome probability

Mil Muğan FK6%Draw13%Qarabağ Ağdam FK81%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Mil Muğan FK6%16.21—

XDraw13%7.55—

2Qarabağ Ağdam FK81%1.24—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.83

No65%

ours 1.55

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMil Muğan FKQarabağ Ağdam FKCombined

Goals scored1.001.332.33

Conceded1.831.173.00

Corners9.210.09.6

Cards1.81.73.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Mil Muğan FKQarabağ Ağdam FK
8Table position3
40.80%Possession56.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Qarabağ Ağdam FK still look stronger — an away win is rated at 81%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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