All matches

Mil Muğan FK — FC İnter Bakı, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası

Mil Muğan FK
1.5LLLWL
—
FC İnter Bakı
1.4WDWDD
Outcome probability
323237
Mil Muğan FK32%Draw32%FC İnter Bakı37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Mil Muğan FK32%3.17—
XDraw32%3.15—
2FC İnter Bakı37%2.72—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes31%

ours 3.25

No69%

ours 1.44

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMil Muğan FKFC İnter BakıCombined
Goals scored0.831.172.00
Conceded1.330.501.83
Corners9.87.58.6
Cards1.82.84.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Mil Muğan FKFC İnter Bakı
    8Table position6
    40.30%Possession44.00%
    7Days of rest7
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC İnter Bakı travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Mil Muğan FK

  • awaySabah FK1:3
  • homeNeftçi PFC Bakı2:3
  • awayFK Qabala1:2
  • awayFK Safa1:0
  • awayZira IK1:3

FC İnter Bakı

  • homeAraz FK2:1
  • awayFK Sumqayıt1:1
  • awayFK Kapaz4:1
  • awayFK Qabala0:0
  • awayTuran-T IK0:0

Head to head

  • 03/08/26Premyer Liqası0:0
  • 02/22/26Premyer Liqası0:0
  • 11/07/25Premyer Liqası0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Turan-T IK63216:411
5Zira IK63127:810
6FC İnter Bakı62318:69
7FK Kapaz52124:77
8Mil Muğan FK61146:114
9FK Qabala61142:74
10FK Safa61052:113

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.