All matches

MFK Zemplín Michalovce — ŽP Šport Podbrezová, Super Liga

Slovakia, Super Liga

MFK Zemplín Michalovce
1.8WLWWW
—
ŽP Šport Podbrezová
1.8WDLDL
Outcome probability
352738
MFK Zemplín Michalovce35%Draw27%ŽP Šport Podbrezová38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1MFK Zemplín Michalovce35%2.87—
XDraw27%3.76—
2ŽP Šport Podbrezová38%2.60—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.72

No42%

ours 2.39

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMFK Zemplín MichalovceŽP Šport PodbrezováCombined
Goals scored1.000.831.83
Conceded0.831.001.83
Corners9.811.010.4
Cards2.03.35.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    MFK Zemplín MichalovceŽP Šport Podbrezová
    43.30%Possession52.30%
    6Table position5
    6Days of rest6
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    ŽP Šport Podbrezová travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

MFK Zemplín Michalovce

  • homeMFK Dukla Banská Bystrica1:0
  • awayMFK Ružomberok0:3
  • homeFK AS Trenčín3:1
  • awayŠK Slovan Bratislava2:1
  • homeMFK Skalica2:0

ŽP Šport Podbrezová

  • awayMFK Skalica1:0
  • homeKFC Komárno1:1
  • awayMŠK Žilina1:3
  • homeFK Košice2:2
  • awayDAC 1904 Dunajská Streda0:5

Head to head

  • 07/25/26Super Liga0:2
  • 04/25/26Super Liga1:2
  • 03/14/26Super Liga1:0
  • 12/06/25Super Liga0:4
  • 08/30/25Super Liga2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3FC Spartak Trnava953121:1018
4ŠK Slovan Bratislava851220:916
5ŽP Šport Podbrezová942313:1614
6MFK Zemplín Michalovce94149:1113
7FK Košice833221:1812
8MFK Skalica922511:198

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.