MFK Dukla Banská Bystrica — ŽP Šport Podbrezová, Super Liga

Slovakia, Super LigaOctober 18 at 01:30 PM

MFK Dukla Banská Bystrica

0.9LWLDW

—

ŽP Šport Podbrezová

1.8WDLDL

Outcome probability

182260

MFK Dukla Banská Bystrica18%Draw22%ŽP Šport Podbrezová60%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1MFK Dukla Banská Bystrica18%5.41—

XDraw22%4.56—

2ŽP Šport Podbrezová60%1.68—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.71

No41%

ours 2.41

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMFK Dukla Banská BystricaŽP Šport PodbrezováCombined

Goals scored1.000.831.83

Conceded1.331.833.16

Corners9.211.610.4

Cards1.83.45.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
MFK Dukla Banská BystricaŽP Šport Podbrezová
9Table position5
8Days of rest6.9
44.00%Possession49.80%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
ŽP Šport Podbrezová travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 60%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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