All matches

Melbourne Victory FC — Melbourne City FC, A-League

Australia, A-League

Melbourne Victory FC
2.2LWDDL
—
Melbourne City FC
2.4DLWWW
Outcome probability
372735
Melbourne Victory FC37%Draw27%Melbourne City FC35%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Melbourne Victory FC37%2.68—
XDraw27%3.64—
2Melbourne City FC35%2.84—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.11

No53%

ours 1.90

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMelbourne Victory FCMelbourne City FCCombined
Goals scored1.001.502.50
Conceded1.001.002.00
Corners13.010.811.9
Cards1.62.03.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Melbourne Victory FCMelbourne City FC
    6.3Days of rest7.2
    45.20%Possession50.00%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Melbourne Victory FC: a home win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Melbourne Victory FC

  • homeSydney FC0:1
  • awayWestern Sydney Wanderers FC2:0
  • homeNewcastle Jets FC2:2
  • awayAuckland FC2:2
  • homeWellington Phoenix FC0:1

Melbourne City FC

  • awayAuckland FC1:1
  • homeAdelaide United FC1:2
  • awayBrisbane Roar FC3:2
  • homeWellington Phoenix FC2:0
  • homeCentral Coast Mariners FC2:1

Head to head

  • 02/21/26A-League3:1
  • 12/20/25A-League1:0
  • 11/08/25A-League0:2
  • 05/31/25A-League0:1
  • 02/22/25A-League2:2

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.