All matches

Manchester City FC — Ipswich Town FC, Premier League

England, Premier League

Manchester City FC
3.7WWWWW
—
Ipswich Town FC
2.0LWLLW
Outcome probability
88
Manchester City FC88%Draw8%Ipswich Town FC4%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Manchester City FC88%1.13—
XDraw8%12.30—
2Ipswich Town FC4%27.10—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.10

No52%

ours 1.91

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricManchester City FCIpswich Town FCCombined
Goals scored1.501.172.67
Conceded0.501.832.33
Corners10.08.89.4
Cards1.51.83.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Manchester City FCIpswich Town FC
    1Table position11
    2.8Days of rest7
    2Matches in 14 days1
    60.50%Possession45.00%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Manchester City FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 88%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 1.5

67%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

Manchester City FC

  • homeSunderland AFC5:3
  • awayManchester United FC1:0
  • awayFC Porto2:0
  • homeCoventry City FC1:0
  • awayCrystal Palace FC4:1

Ipswich Town FC

  • awayEverton FC0:1
  • awayCrystal Palace FC3:2
  • homeLiverpool FC0:2
  • awayManchester United FC2:5
  • homeSunderland AFC2:1

Head to head

  • 01/19/25Premier League6:0
  • 08/24/24Premier League4:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Manchester City FC550013:515
2Arsenal FC54018:412
3Brighton & Hove Albion FC531116:510
4Brentford FC523010:49
5Leeds United FC52307:39
6Liverpool FC52307:49
7Everton FC52306:39
8Hull City AFC52216:48
9Newcastle United FC52219:98
10Chelsea FC521210:127
11Ipswich Town FC52037:116
12Manchester United FC51228:85
13Nottingham Forest FC51224:55

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.