All matches

Malmö FF — BK Häcken, Allsvenskan

Sweden, Allsvenskan

Malmö FF
2.4LWDWL
—
BK Häcken
2.0WDDLW
Outcome probability
452331
Malmö FF45%Draw23%BK Häcken31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Malmö FF45%2.20—
XDraw23%4.28—
2BK Häcken31%3.20—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.63

No39%

ours 2.59

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMalmö FFBK HäckenCombined
Goals scored0.831.672.50
Conceded1.000.671.67
Corners10.210.010.1
Cards2.00.82.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Malmö FFBK Häcken
    7Table position5
    5.9Days of rest7
    46.80%Possession42.70%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Malmö FF: a home win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Malmö FF

  • awayVästerås SK Fotboll0:2
  • homeÖrgryte IS4:1
  • homeAIK Fotboll0:0
  • awayIK Sirius Fotboll1:0
  • homeDjurgårdens IF0:3

BK Häcken

  • awayKalmar FF5:0
  • homeMjällby AIF1:1
  • awayGAIS0:0
  • homeVästerås SK Fotboll1:3
  • awayIK Sirius Fotboll3:0

Head to head

  • 05/10/26Allsvenskan2:3
  • 11/01/25Allsvenskan1:1
  • 06/01/25Allsvenskan3:0
  • 09/22/24Allsvenskan4:0
  • 05/20/24Allsvenskan2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Djurgårdens IF21122745:2138
4IF Elfsborg22107531:2237
5BK Häcken2299439:3036
6Västerås SK Fotboll22105734:3535
7Malmö FF22103937:3333
8AIK Fotboll2195730:3332
9IFK Göteborg2295831:4132

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.