Malaga — Espanyol, La Liga

Spain, La LigaOctober 9 at 07:00 PM

Malaga

2.2LLDDL

—

Espanyol

1.5LLWDL

Outcome probability

432928

Malaga43%Draw29%Espanyol28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Malaga43%2.32—

XDraw29%3.47—

2Espanyol28%3.57—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes37%

ours 2.74

No63%

ours 1.58

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMalagaEspanyolCombined

Goals scored0.501.171.67

Conceded1.671.673.34

Corners11.37.29.3

Cards2.52.85.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
MalagaEspanyol
20Table position15
51.50%Possession48.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Málaga CF look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 43%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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