Luxembourg — Bulgaria, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations LeagueOctober 6 at 06:45 PM

Luxembourg

1.6LWWWL

—

Bulgaria

1.6DLWLL

Outcome probability

452827

Luxembourg45%Draw28%Bulgaria27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Luxembourg45%2.24—

XDraw28%3.57—

2Bulgaria27%3.66—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes38%

ours 2.62

No62%

ours 1.62

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLuxembourgBulgariaCombined

Goals scored1.170.501.67

Conceded0.331.501.83

Corners7.39.88.5

Cards2.81.03.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
LuxembourgBulgaria
57.50%Possession32.00%
29Table position37
3.1Days of rest3.1
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Luxembourg: a home win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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