All matches

Los Chankas — Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso, Primera División

Peru, Primera División

Los Chankas
2.0LLLLL
—
Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso
2.9WLWWL
Outcome probability
332840
Los Chankas33%Draw28%Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso40%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Los Chankas33%3.06—
XDraw28%3.60—
2Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso40%2.53—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.74

No43%

ours 2.35

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLos ChankasAsociación Civil Real Atlético GarcilasoCombined
Goals scored0.170.670.84
Conceded1.170.331.50
Corners10.08.79.3
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Los ChankasAsociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso
    1Days of rest2.2
    6Table position5
    55.50%Possession58.00%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso still look stronger — an away win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

Los Chankas

  • homeFC Cajamarca1:2
  • awayClub Sporting Cristal SAC0:5
  • homeJuan Pablo II College3:4
  • awayClub Universitario de Deportes0:3
  • homeFBC Melgar0:3

Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso

  • awayFC Cajamarca2:1
  • homeFBC Melgar0:1
  • homeUCV Moquegua2:0
  • awayClub Cienciano2:1
  • awayClub Deportivo Garcilaso1:4

Head to head

  • 05/10/26Primera División1:1
  • 10/04/25Primera División2:1
  • 05/17/25Primera División3:3
  • 10/17/24Primera División1:2
  • 05/04/24Primera División2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Club Deportivo Garcilaso27146739:2448
4FBC Melgar27137745:2946
5Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso271431040:3845
6Los Chankas26125935:4441
7Club Cienciano261241045:3940
8Club Alianza Atlético Sullana27117940:3540

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.