Los Angeles FC — Vancouver Whitecaps FC, MLS

USA, MLSOctober 11 at 02:30 AM

Los Angeles FC

2.6LDLWD

—

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

2.7DWLWL

Outcome probability

372636

Los Angeles FC37%Draw26%Vancouver Whitecaps FC36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Los Angeles FC37%2.70—

XDraw26%3.78—

2Vancouver Whitecaps FC36%2.74—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.28

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLos Angeles FCVancouver Whitecaps FCCombined

Goals scored1.171.833.00

Conceded1.331.332.66

Corners13.711.212.4

Cards1.72.44.1

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Los Angeles FCVancouver Whitecaps FC
0Matches in 14 days2
11Table position2
14Days of rest4.1
47.80%Possession54.60%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Los Angeles FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 37%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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