All matches

Llandudno FC — Airbus UK FC, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier League

Llandudno FC
1.9LLDLW
—
Airbus UK FC
1.9LWLLW
Outcome probability
422731
Llandudno FC42%Draw27%Airbus UK FC31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Llandudno FC42%2.41—
XDraw27%3.66—
2Airbus UK FC31%3.21—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLlandudno FCAirbus UK FCCombined
Goals scored1.331.172.50
Conceded1.831.333.16
Corners8.69.08.8
Cards2.41.03.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Llandudno FCAirbus UK FC
    51.40%Possession43.40%
    9Table position10
    6.2Days of rest6.2
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Llandudno FC: a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Goal in both halves: Yes

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Llandudno FC

  • awayCambrian & Clydach Vale FC3:4
  • awayThe New Saints FC1:2
  • homeCaernarfon Town FC1:1
  • awayBarry Town United FC1:4
  • homeAmmanford AFC2:0

Airbus UK FC

  • awayPenybont FC1:2
  • homeFlint Town United FC4:1
  • awayConnah's Quay Nomads FC0:3
  • homeThe New Saints FC0:2
  • awayBriton Ferry Llansawel AFC2:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Cardiff Metropolitan University FC1153322:1318
8Cambrian & Clydach Vale FC1153321:2318
9Llandudno FC1151521:1816
10Airbus UK FC1150618:1715
11Haverfordwest County AFC113177:1610
12Briton Ferry Llansawel AFC1123610:209

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.