All matches

Liverpool FC — Brighton & Hove Albion FC, Premier League

England, Premier League

Liverpool FC
3.3WDWWD
—
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
2.6WWDLW
Outcome probability
432829
Liverpool FC43%Draw28%Brighton & Hove Albion FC29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Liverpool FC43%2.32—
XDraw28%3.60—
2Brighton & Hove Albion FC29%3.44—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.61

No38%

ours 2.63

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLiverpool FCBrighton & Hove Albion FCCombined
Goals scored0.171.331.50
Conceded0.000.000.00
Corners9.59.59.5
Cards1.02.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Liverpool FCBrighton & Hove Albion FC
    6Table position3
    4.8Days of rest2.9
    4Matches in 14 days3
    55.00%Possession54.50%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Liverpool FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 43%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Liverpool FC

  • awayAFC Bournemouth1:0
  • homeFulham FC0:0
  • homeClub Atlético de Madrid2:1
  • awayIpswich Town FC2:0
  • homeNottingham Forest FC2:2

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

  • homeArsenal FC3:0
  • awayCoventry City FC5:0
  • homeLeeds United FC1:1
  • awayChelsea FC3:4
  • homeTromsø IL4:0

Head to head

  • 03/21/26Premier League1:2
  • 12/13/25Premier League2:0
  • 05/19/25Premier League2:3
  • 11/02/24Premier League2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Manchester City FC550013:515
2Arsenal FC54018:412
3Brighton & Hove Albion FC531116:510
4Brentford FC523010:49
5Leeds United FC52307:39
6Liverpool FC52307:49
7Everton FC52306:39
8Hull City AFC52216:48

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.