All matches

Lincoln City FC — West Ham United FC, Championship

England, Championship

Lincoln City FC
1.9LWWDD
—
West Ham United FC
1.7DWWWW
Outcome probability
332938
Lincoln City FC33%Draw29%West Ham United FC38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lincoln City FC33%3.01—
XDraw29%3.43—
2West Ham United FC38%2.66—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.00

No50%

ours 2.00

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLincoln City FCWest Ham United FCCombined
Goals scored0.673.003.67
Conceded0.501.001.50
Corners12.011.011.5
Cards2.42.04.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Lincoln City FCWest Ham United FC
    13Table position2
    38.20%Possession52.80%
    4.2Days of rest5
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    West Ham United FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

Lincoln City FC

  • homeSwansea City AFC1:2
  • awayBristol City FC1:0
  • awayPreston North End FC1:0
  • homeSouthampton FC1:1
  • homeBlackburn Rovers FC0:0

West Ham United FC

  • awayMillwall FC2:2
  • homeWrexham FC6:0
  • awayBolton Wanderers FC3:2
  • homeDerby County FC3:0
  • homeWolverhampton Wanderers FC4:2

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Swansea City AFC852113:617
2West Ham United FC843122:1115
3Middlesbrough FC843116:1215
4Southampton FC842219:1014
5Wolverhampton Wanderers FC742115:1014
6West Bromwich Albion FC842210:814
7Queens Park Rangers FC834110:713
8Stoke City FC841313:1213
9Bristol City FC841311:1213
10Charlton Athletic FC83327:1012
11Birmingham City FC825112:1111
12Millwall FC832315:1511
13Lincoln City FC83237:811
14Wrexham FC82429:1210
15Bolton Wanderers FC831411:1510

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.