All matches

Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito — CSD Macará, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito
2.9WDWDL
—
CSD Macará
2.4WWLWW
Outcome probability
462826
Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito46%Draw28%CSD Macará26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito46%2.19—
XDraw28%3.56—
2CSD Macará26%3.82—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.29

No56%

ours 1.77

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLiga Deportiva Universitaria de QuitoCSD MacaráCombined
Goals scored1.001.332.33
Conceded0.501.171.67
Corners9.88.08.9
Cards2.51.84.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Liga Deportiva Universitaria de QuitoCSD Macará
    5Table position2
    60.80%Possession47.50%
    7Days of rest7
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito: a home win is rated at 46%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito

  • homeCD Universidad Católica del Ecuador2:1
  • homeCD Cuenca1:1
  • awayCD Técnico Universitario3:1
  • homeMushuc Runa SC0:0
  • awayGuayaquil City FC1:2

CSD Macará

  • awaySD Aucas2:1
  • homeCS Emelec1:0
  • awayCSD Independiente del Valle1:3
  • homeManta FC4:3
  • awayOrense SC2:1

Head to head

  • 07/05/26Primera Categoría Serie A0:1
  • 03/01/26Primera Categoría Serie A0:2
  • 08/30/25Primera Categoría Serie A1:1
  • 05/10/25Primera Categoría Serie A1:0
  • 08/04/24Primera Categoría Serie A4:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1CSD Independiente del Valle30242473:3374
2CSD Macará31166943:3454
3CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador31149852:2951
4SD Aucas31148934:3050
5Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito311471033:2549
6Barcelona SC301111832:2544
7CA Libertad311281135:3544

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.