Mladost Lucani — OFK Beograd, SuperLiga

Serbia, SuperLigaOctober 10 at 12:00 AM

Mladost Lucani

1.8WLWLW

—

OFK Beograd

1.8LLDLW

Outcome probability

273341

Mladost Lucani27%Draw33%OFK Beograd41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Mladost Lucani27%3.76—

XDraw33%3.05—

2OFK Beograd41%2.47—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.09

No52%

ours 1.91

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMladost LucaniOFK BeogradCombined

Goals scored1.171.172.34

Conceded1.502.333.83

Corners8.36.57.4

Cards2.72.04.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Mladost LucaniOFK Beograd
4Table position10
41.50%Possession57.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, OFK Beograd still look stronger — an away win is rated at 41%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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