Leixões SC — Porto II, LigaPro

Portugal, LigaProOctober 10 at 02:30 PM

Leixões SC

1.9DWWLW

—

Porto II

1.6DLLWL

Outcome probability

482527

Leixões SC48%Draw25%Porto II27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Leixões SC48%2.07—

XDraw25%4.00—

2Porto II27%3.76—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.94

No48%

ours 2.06

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLeixões SCPorto IICombined

Goals scored1.330.672.00

Conceded1.002.173.17

Corners9.78.39.0

Cards3.23.36.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Leixões SCPorto II
6Table position17
52.20%Possession49.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Leixões SC: a home win is rated at 48%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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