All matches

Leeds United FC — Manchester United FC, Premier League

England, Premier League

Leeds United FC
2.9DWDDW
—
Manchester United FC
2.8DLWDW
Outcome probability
322939
Leeds United FC32%Draw29%Manchester United FC39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Leeds United FC32%3.14—
XDraw29%3.47—
2Manchester United FC39%2.55—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.79

No44%

ours 2.26

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLeeds United FCManchester United FCCombined
Goals scored1.171.172.34
Conceded0.500.671.17
Corners9.211.310.2
Cards1.41.32.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Leeds United FCManchester United FC
    5Table position12
    1Matches in 14 days2
    8.1Days of rest4.8
    45.00%Possession56.50%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Manchester United FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Leeds United FC

  • homeCrystal Palace FC0:0
  • homeNewcastle United FC4:1
  • awayBrighton & Hove Albion FC1:1
  • homeBrentford FC1:1
  • awayNottingham Forest FC1:0

Manchester United FC

  • awayFulham FC1:1
  • homeManchester City FC0:1
  • homeSabah FK4:0
  • awayEverton FC2:2
  • homeIpswich Town FC5:2

Head to head

  • 04/13/26Premier League2:1
  • 01/04/26Premier League1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Brighton & Hove Albion FC531116:510
4Brentford FC523010:49
5Leeds United FC52307:39
6Liverpool FC52307:49
7Everton FC52306:39
8Hull City AFC52216:48
9Newcastle United FC52219:98
10Chelsea FC521210:127
11Ipswich Town FC52037:116
12Manchester United FC51228:85
13Nottingham Forest FC51224:55
14Sunderland AFC51136:104

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.