All matches

LASK Linz — FC Salzburg, Bundesliga

Austria, Bundesliga

LASK Linz
2.8DLLWW
—
FC Salzburg
2.6WWDWW
Outcome probability
482527
LASK Linz48%Draw25%FC Salzburg27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1LASK Linz48%2.09—
XDraw25%3.96—
2FC Salzburg27%3.72—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes63%

ours 1.58

No37%

ours 2.72

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLASK LinzFC SalzburgCombined
Goals scored0.670.671.34
Conceded0.830.000.83
Corners9.510.09.8
Cards1.02.53.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    LASK LinzFC Salzburg
    3Table position2
    3.9Days of rest2.9
    63.00%Possession52.50%
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour LASK Linz: a home win is rated at 48%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

LASK Linz

  • awayTSV Hartberg3:3
  • awaySK Sturm Graz1:2
  • awayAEK Athens FC0:1
  • awayWolfsberger Athletik Club3:1
  • homeSC Rheindorf Altach3:0

FC Salzburg

  • homeSK Sturm Graz3:0
  • awayPFC Levski Sofia1:0
  • awaySV Ried1:1
  • homeSK Rapid Wien5:1
  • homeFK Austria Wien4:1

Head to head

  • 05/10/26Bundesliga2:1
  • 04/10/26Bundesliga3:2
  • 02/22/26Bundesliga1:5
  • 08/23/25Bundesliga0:3
  • 11/23/24Bundesliga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1SK Rapid Wien760121:718
2FC Salzburg752018:417
3LASK Linz751119:716
4SK Sturm Graz73228:911
5SV Ried722311:128

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.