All matches

KVC Westerlo — Waasland-Beveren, Pro League

Belgium, Pro League

KVC Westerlo
1.8WWWDL
—
Waasland-Beveren
1.8LWWLL
Outcome probability
482725
KVC Westerlo48%Draw27%Waasland-Beveren25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1KVC Westerlo48%2.08—
XDraw27%3.69—
2Waasland-Beveren25%4.02—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.79

No44%

ours 2.27

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKVC WesterloWaasland-BeverenCombined
Goals scored2.000.832.83
Conceded1.331.502.83
Corners9.68.49.0
Cards0.81.82.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    KVC WesterloWaasland-Beveren
    1Matches in 14 days0
    8Table position10
    13.1Days of rest14
    49.20%Possession51.40%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    KVC Westerlo look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 48%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

KVC Westerlo

  • awaySint-Truidense VV2:0
  • homeRoyal Standard de Liège4:2
  • awayYR KV Mechelen4:0
  • homeSV Zulte-Waregem2:2
  • awayLommel United0:4

Waasland-Beveren

  • awayKV Kortrijk0:1
  • homeSint-Truidense VV2:0
  • homeOud-Heverlee Leuven3:0
  • awayKRC Genk0:4
  • awaySV Zulte-Waregem0:4

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6SV Zulte-Waregem732210:711
7Royal Standard de Liège732213:1211
8KVC Westerlo731315:1610
9KRC Genk723213:129
10Waasland-Beveren73047:119
11Sint-Truidense VV722312:128
12Lommel United72236:88

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.