All matches

Kuopion Palloseura — Trabzonspor, UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League

Kuopion Palloseura
3.1WDDLW
—
Trabzonspor
2.7WLWLL
Outcome probability
282844
Kuopion Palloseura28%Draw28%Trabzonspor44%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Kuopion Palloseura28%3.52—
XDraw28%3.64—
2Trabzonspor44%2.27—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93

No48%

ours 2.07

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKuopion PalloseuraTrabzonsporCombined
Goals scored0.501.672.17
Conceded0.331.171.50
Corners10.39.09.6
Cards1.53.24.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Kuopion PalloseuraTrabzonspor
    2Matches in 14 days1
    4.2Days of rest5.2
    53.50%Possession51.60%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Trabzonspor still look stronger — an away win is rated at 44%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Kuopion Palloseura

  • awayVaasan Palloseura2:0
  • homeHelsingin Jalkapalloklubi0:0
  • awayIF Gnistan1:1
  • awayFC Inter Turku0:1
  • homeShamrock Rovers FC1:0

Trabzonspor

  • homeGalatasaray4:0
  • awayKonyaspor0:1
  • homeGençlerbirliği5:0
  • awayAmed Sportif Faaliyetler Kulübü1:2
  • awayFerencvárosi TC0:4

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
63Brighton & Hove Albion FC21104:04
64Paphos FC21105:34
65Kuopion Palloseura21102:14
66Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio21101:04
67Shelbourne FC41129:94

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.