Klub Sportowy Wieczysta Kraków — Wisła Płock SA, Ekstraklasa

Poland, EkstraklasaOctober 9 at 04:00 PM

Klub Sportowy Wieczysta Kraków

1.7DLDLL

—

Wisła Płock SA

1.9WWDLL

Outcome probability

442829

Klub Sportowy Wieczysta Kraków44%Draw28%Wisła Płock SA29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Klub Sportowy Wieczysta Kraków44%2.30—

XDraw28%3.63—

2Wisła Płock SA29%3.45—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90

No47%

ours 2.11

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKlub Sportowy Wieczysta KrakówWisła Płock SACombined

Goals scored1.501.172.67

Conceded2.171.834.00

Corners11.210.210.7

Cards1.31.52.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Klub Sportowy Wieczysta KrakówWisła Płock SA
17Table position11
57.20%Possession52.20%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Klub Sportowy Wieczysta Kraków look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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