Kieler SV Holstein 1900 — SG Dynamo Dresden, 2. Bundesliga

Germany, 2. BundesligaOctober 25 at 12:30 PM

Kieler SV Holstein 1900

1.1DLDLD

—

SG Dynamo Dresden

1.5LDLLW

Outcome probability

432630

Kieler SV Holstein 190043%Draw26%SG Dynamo Dresden30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Kieler SV Holstein 190043%2.31—

XDraw26%3.80—

2SG Dynamo Dresden30%3.30—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.28

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKieler SV Holstein 1900SG Dynamo DresdenCombined

Goals scored0.501.171.67

Conceded1.001.832.83

Corners12.311.311.8

Cards3.01.84.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Kieler SV Holstein 1900SG Dynamo Dresden
8.8Days of rest7
16Table position17
54.00%Possession55.50%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Kieler SV Holstein 1900 look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 43%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context