Llamkos — Gjilani, Superleague of Kosovo

Kosovo, Superleague of KosovoOctober 10 at 12:00 PM

Llamkos

1.4LLLLL

—

Gjilani

2.1LDWLD

Outcome probability

162361

Llamkos16%Draw23%Gjilani61%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Llamkos16%6.25—

XDraw23%4.35—

2Gjilani61%1.64—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.22

No55%

ours 1.82

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLlamkosGjilaniCombined

Goals scored0.501.171.67

Conceded2.171.173.34

Corners6.56.76.6

Cards0.00.00.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
LlamkosGjilani
10Table position5
34.50%Possession50.00%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, KF Gjilani still look stronger — an away win is rated at 61%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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