Kazakhstan — Faroe Islands, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations LeagueOctober 6 at 02:00 PM

Kazakhstan

1.6DDDWL

—

Faroe Islands

1.8DDLWW

Outcome probability

343729

Kazakhstan34%Draw37%Faroe Islands29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Kazakhstan34%2.91—

XDraw37%2.72—

2Faroe Islands29%3.46—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes24%

ours 4.23

No76%

ours 1.31

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKazakhstanFaroe IslandsCombined

Goals scored1.171.332.50

Conceded0.500.831.33

Corners12.010.511.3

Cards3.31.34.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
KazakhstanFaroe Islands
47.50%Possession34.80%
31Table position27
4Days of rest3.8
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
The sides are closely matched, and a draw is likelier than usual at 37%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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