All matches

Karmiotissa — Omonia, First Division

Cyprus, First Division

Karmiotissa
1.4DDDLL
—
Omonia
3.8WWDWD
Outcome probability
90
Karmiotissa3%Draw7%Omonia90%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Karmiotissa3%8%29.4113.00-4.3
XDraw7%14%14.536.93-7.6
2Omonia90%83%1.111.21+6.9

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes36%

ours 2.80book 2.06

No64%

ours 1.56book 1.68

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKarmiotissaOmoniaCombined
Goals scored0.672.172.84
Conceded1.170.671.84
Corners7.011.39.2
Cards2.51.33.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    KarmiotissaOmonia
    12Table position3
    43.20%Possession58.20%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    AC Omonia Nicosia travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 90%. Bookmakers price this at 1.21.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Karmiotissa

  • awayAris Limassol0:0
  • homeOmonia Aradippou1:1
  • awayOmonia 29 Maiou2:2
  • homePaphos0:3
  • awayAEL Limassol0:1

Omonia

  • homeDigenis Ypsonas4:1
  • homeCelta Vigo1:0
  • homeApollon Limassol0:0
  • awayAris Limassol4:1
  • homeOmonia Aradippou0:0

Head to head

  • 02/01/25First Division0:3
  • 10/28/24First Division2:6

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AEK Larnaca43019:49
2AEL Limassol43016:79
3Omonia42208:28
4Paphos42114:27
5Apollon Limassol41307:56
6Omonia Aradippou41304:36
7Omonia 29 Maiou41219:75
8Aris Limassol41214:65
9APOEL411210:74
10Olympiakos Nicosia40407:74
11Nea Salamis Famagusta41128:94
12Karmiotissa40313:63
13Anorthosis Famagusta41033:93
14Digenis Ypsonas40042:100

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.