Kalmar FF — IF Brommapojkarna, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 24 at 03:30 PM

Kalmar FF

1.2LLLLD

—

IF Brommapojkarna

1.4LLWLW

Outcome probability

342541

Kalmar FF34%Draw25%IF Brommapojkarna41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Kalmar FF34%2.92—

XDraw25%4.05—

2IF Brommapojkarna41%2.44—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.97

No49%

ours 2.03

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKalmar FFIF BrommapojkarnaCombined

Goals scored0.000.500.50

Conceded1.331.502.83

Corners10.811.010.9

Cards0.81.01.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Kalmar FFIF Brommapojkarna
2Matches in 14 days1
4.9Days of rest7.9
68.80%Possession46.80%
14Table position11
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna still look stronger — an away win is rated at 41%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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