Kalmar FF — GAIS, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 29 at 06:00 PM

Kalmar FF

1.2LLLLD

—

GAIS

2.4WDWLL

Outcome probability

212257

Kalmar FF21%Draw22%GAIS57%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Kalmar FF21%4.81—

XDraw22%4.45—

2GAIS57%1.76—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes39%

ours 2.58

No61%

ours 1.63

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKalmar FFGAISCombined

Goals scored0.000.500.50

Conceded1.170.001.17

Corners9.06.57.8

Cards0.71.52.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Kalmar FFGAIS
14Table position10
5.1Days of rest4.2
59.30%Possession50.20%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
GAIS travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 57%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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